The property market has ushered in a wave of policy easing, and local policies to optimize the real estate market have been rolled up.
Combing found that the country still retains housing purchase restrictions in the provinces or cities, in addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen four first-tier cities, only Hainan Province, Tianjin is still in a state of partial liberalization of purchase restrictions.
The household sector, which is closely related to real estate, rose nearly 15% in less than a month (April 17-May 15). On May 16, the household goods sector opened slightly lower and rose strongly in early trading, up 1% by the end of the morning trading.Videogametable.9%, constituent stocks rose more than fell less, Asia vibration furniture rose by the limit, Zhibang household rose by more than 6%, Fillinger, Diou home (rights protection), dream lily, Qumei home and so on rose.
During the year, many cities issued policies to support the property market.
In 2024, the national property market began the first year of unlimited purchase.
Following the abolition of housing purchase restrictions in Hangzhou and Xi'an on May 9, the policy of housing purchase restrictions has been relaxed in many places across the country. Combing found that the country still retains housing purchase restrictions in the provinces or cities, in addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen four first-tier cities, only Hainan Province, Tianjin is still in a state of partial liberalization of purchase restrictions.
The notice on policies and measures for further optimizing the stable and healthy Development of the Real Estate Market issued by Chengdu Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau on April 28 shows that since April 29, housing transactions in Chengdu will no longer examine and verify the eligibility of house purchases. notarized lottery house selection will no longer be implemented for commercial housing projects in the city, and will be sold by enterprises independently.
With the support of a series of policies, the activity and trading volume of the real estate market in many places have also warmed up, and as an important household industry downstream of the real estate, it is also favored by institutions.
Dongguan Securities pointed out that the complete abolition of housing purchase restrictions in Hangzhou, Xi'an, Chengdu and other places, and the optimization of housing purchase restrictions in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shenzhen will help lower the threshold for housing purchase and stimulate the release of potential demand; in addition, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places encourage commercial housing to "trade in the old for new", which is conducive to the smooth flow of the primary and second-hand chain and boost the release of demand. The confidence of the market may be gradually repaired, which is expected to boost the demand for household products. As one of the four major consumer King Kong household sector, valuation is still historically low, with a certain investment performance-to-price ratio.
Debang Securities pointed out that the entire home sector, although there is still pressure on the performance of some enterprises, but the bottom of the real estate policy, valuation is also at the bottom of history, the long-term layout value of the home sector is prominent.
The demand for overseas furniture is outstanding.
In addition to the expected increase in domestic demand, so is the home decoration industry.VideogametableAn important contributor to China's export market. In 2024, under the expectation that the Federal Reserve is more likely to cut interest rates, the sea order of home furnishings is expected to improve.
Recently, data released by the General Administration of Customs show that in April this year, domestic exports of furniture and parts were 6.26 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.54 percent over the same period last year, while exports fell 0.01 percent in the same period last year. Exports fell 12.27 percent in March compared with the same period last year, and furniture exports improved in April. From January to April 2024, the total export value of furniture and parts reached 23.725 billion US dollars, an increase of 16.5% over the same period last year.
China Galaxy Securities said that looking ahead, the Fed will be more likely to cut interest rates, while US real estate sales have a high correlation with interest rates, which is expected to boost real estate sales and furniture consumption, and is optimistic about Chinese furniture exports.
Caitong Securities said that under the low base, the exports of various categories of light industry improved significantly in the first four months of this year, with the demolitions gradually coming to an end, the replenishment cycle may come, and the superimposed 2024 interest rate cut is expected to usher in a recovery in US real estate. Orders for overseas enterprises are expected to be improved. It is recommended to pay attention to the light industry household export chain.
The performance-to-price ratio of furniture plate is prominent.
After a long period of adjustment, the valuation of the furniture supplies sector has been historically low. As of May 15, the PE-TTM and PB-MRQ of the plate were 25.01x and 2.46x, respectively, at 7.69% and 5.14% of the ten-year position.
Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the current plate valuation is low, real estate pessimistic expectations of price in, the layout of performance-to-price ratio highlighted.
Huaan Securities pointed out that from January 2, 2024 to April 30, 2024, the cumulative rise and fall of the household goods sector was-5.59%, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen by 300. As of April 30, 2024, the household goods sector PE (TTM) was 18.77 times, in the 0.53% percentile of nearly a decade's history, and the head company was undervalued. We believe that the support of the real estate policy will help to promote the repair and expected improvement of confidence in the real estate market, promote rigid demand and improved demand to enter the market, or promote the stabilization and rebound of sales of second-hand and new houses, thus driving the demand of the real estate chain to pick up. Pull household consumer demand and home plate valuation, we suggest paying attention to real estate post-cycle opportunities, layout of low-valued plate head enterprises.
Institutional concern
Debang Securities: in terms of subject matter, the current proposed layout has several main lines: 1) although the fundamentals of some household enterprises are still weak, the long-term competitiveness of leading enterprises has been constructed. the value of long-term layout is prominent: pay attention to European home, Sofia, Zhibang home; 2) the export boom of software enterprises continues, domestic sales recover steadily, pay attention to Gu Home, Minhua Holdings, Mousse shares and so on. 3) the intelligent track with high magnanimity: pay attention to the high growth of the independent brand of the intelligent toilet, the good wife of the intelligent drying bibcock, etc.; 4) those with good performance expectations and low valuation in the second quarter: pay attention to the hot sale of mattress packages, the fast-growing mousse shares of V6, the happy door of the sinking market and so on.
Zhongtai Securities: on the target selection, it is suggested to focus on the improvement of permeability, the strong growth of the smart home race track, and the soft race track with relatively high demand for renewal, combined with the valuation level to recommend Bulls Group, Minhua Holdings, Xi Linmen, Mousse shares, and pay attention to the Rilte, which has a relatively smooth transformation of its own brand.
Caitong Securities: recommend customized home leading European home with continuous improvement of supply chain efficiency and organizational management ability, and software home leading household with continuous development of customized business. It is suggested that we should pay attention to the leading shares of middle and high-end mattresses with leading brands and strong channels, the leading homes of pan-household industries that accelerate the sinking of channels and the transformation of digital new retail, and mattresses with rich product mattress mattresses.
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