Newsletter summary
Corn prices in North China fell this week, affected by the wheat harvest; prices in Northeast China are on the strong side, and spot goods are not free. The listing of new season wheat presses the price of corn, but the impact of the policy is limited. The rebound in pig prices boosted feed demand. Continuous high shock of corn, there is expected to be pullback pressure. Us corn rebounded slightly, boosted by the weather.
Text of news flash
[the corn market fluctuates at a high level, and the trend of spot prices diverges significantly]
This week, corn prices in North China showed a downward trend, failing to continue the previous upward trend. Due to the large rebound in wheat harvest and prices, the willingness of traders to take goods has surged, resulting in the number of ununloaded vehicles in Shandong deep processing enterprises continuously exceeding 1000 in the morning, which makes the local price drop from the previous month.Freebonuscasino10-40 yuan per ton. However, given that wheat harvesting may be the last concentrated sale of corn in North China, the downward pressure on prices will be limited. The eyes of market participants gradually turned to the wheat market.
The high yield of wheat in the new season is expected to be strong, and its price trend is weak. Recently, wheat in some areas began to show the advantage of feed substitution. The market pays close attention to the impact of "hot and dry wind" and lodging on wheat yields, fearing that there may be further pressure on corn prices during the wheat market. However, due to previous rumors in the market that wheat reserves are larger, the room for wheat to depress corn prices is expected to be limited. In addition, we need to pay attention to the impact of policy trends on the price difference between wheat and corn.
The price of corn in Northeast China is relatively strong, but the liquidity is poor, and the accumulation of corn inventory in northern ports has exerted pressure on the price. However, driven by the futures market and the quotations of large enterprises, the trend of spot prices is still strong. The corn quotation in Jinzhou Port has risen by about 30 yuan / ton this week, but the circulation of goods from north to south is still upside down, and the grain inventory in Guangdong Port is still at the high level of the same period in previous years. Recently, efforts are being made to reduce the inventory, and the willingness to buy corn for domestic trade remains low.
Pig prices rebounded significantly this week, the market is more bullish about future pig prices, and the increase in farming profits will help reduce the substitution of other grains for corn in feed. However, at present, from the corn pick-up situation, this impact has not yet been shown.
In the futures market, there was a high volatility this week. Due to the weak willingness to purchase downstream, it is more difficult for prices to rise. Recently, it has been rumored that there will be an invitation to bid for the import reserve corn next week, and the price will be set at 2350 yuan / ton. As June approaches, the expected release of policy grain sources and the availability of new season wheat put pressure on the market. However, as the 07 contract is still on the spot, there may be a correction risk in the near future. However, due to the expected impact of the market on the introduction of imported reserve corn and the listing of new season wheat, the room for further decline is limited. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to the opportunity of laying out more orders in 09 contracts again after this pullback, while activist investors can pay attention to the opportunities to short 07 contracts in the short term.
In the international market, US corn prices rebounded slightly this week, as weather factors boosted the US market. Forecasters say there will be storms and heavy rain in the corn belt this week, which could slow sowing in the United States. The latest 72-hour accumulated precipitation cloud map released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows that most of the corn belt will have plenty of rain from Friday to Monday. The 8-14-day forecast shows that the precipitation in the Great Plain and the western part of the corn belt will be higher than normal between May 30 and June 5, and the temperature in the whole plain may also be higher than normal. In addition, the U. S. market net long corn positions from negative to positive, coupled with the market on the weather trading, the price trend is expected to be volatile.